Free PRMIA 8008 Practice Exam with Questions & Answers | Set: 3

Negative publicity, a downgrade in the credit rating, a falling stock price are all pointers to potential credit problems, and the counterparty credit monitoring group of a bank should be using these as possible early indicators of an upcoming credit health problem. A decline in the yield of the debt issued by a counterparty means its spread is declining and the health of the credit is actually improving. Therefore a decline in the counterparty's corporate debt yield cannot be used as an indicator of potential credit problems.

Choice 'c' is therefore the correct answer.

Let the probability of default over a month be p. Therefore the probability of survival at the end of 12 months would be (1 - p)^12. Since the one year probability of default is 12%, we know that the probability of survival is 88%. Putting (1 - p)^12 = 88% and solving for p, we get p = 1.06%. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

Under the contingent claims approach, credit risk is modeled as the value of a put option on the value of the firm's assets with a strike equal to the face value of the debt and maturity equal to the maturity of the obligation. The cost of credit risk is determined by the leverage ratio, the volatility of the firm's assets and the maturity of the debt. Cash flows are not a part of the equation. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.

When returns are non-normal and have fat tails, an assumption of normality in returns leads to underestimation of VaR at high confidence levels. At the same time, at lower confidence levels the normal distribution may give higher VaR estimates. Therefore Choice 'a' is correct. The other choices are incorrect.

Also refer to the tutorial about VaR and heavy tails.

Any stress test is conducted with a view to produce a dollar estimate of losses, therefore statement I is correct. However, these numbers do not come with any probabilities or confidence levels, unlike VaR, and statement III is incorrect. Stress testing can complement VaR, but not replace it, therefore statement II is not correct. Statement IV is correct as stress tests can be based on both actual historical events, or simulated factor shocks (eg, a factor, such as interest rates, moves by say 10-z).

Therefore Choice 'a' is correct.

Choice 'd' represents a risk that does not arise from its holdings of mortgages. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

All the other risks identified are correct - the bank faces interest rate, default and prepayment risks on its mortgages.

According to the Basel II framework, Tier 1 capital, also called core capital or basic equity, includes equity capital and disclosed reserves.

Tier 2 capital, also called supplementary capital, includes undisclosed reserves, revaluation reserves, general provisions/general loan-loss reserves, hybrid debt capital instruments and subordinated term debt.

Tier 3 capital, or short term subordinated debt, is intended only to cover market risk but only at the discretion of their national authority.

The total variance of the system is 100^2 + 40^2 + 30^2 = 12500 (as variance = volatility squared). The first factor alone has a variance of 10,000, or 80%. Therefore only the first factor will be included in the final analysis, and the rest will be ignored.

Interestingly, this example highlights one of the limitations of PCA. Obviously, the second and third factors are material when considering volatility, though the effect of squaring them to get the variance makes them appear less important than they are.

A CFP is indeed a disaster recovery plan to deal with a liquidity crisis. Therefore statement I is correct.

A CFP should consider market stress conditions, including wide scale failures of payment and settlement systems. Statement II is not correct.

It is true that reputational damage may result if a firm has to activate its CFP - therefore the plan should consider internal and external communications, the timing of information release and the groups within the firm who need to know about the implementation of the plan. Reputational damage can only make any existing liquidity problems worse. Statement III is correct.

Sources of emergency funding should not include funding from the central bank - unless as part of a regular lending facility. Its role as a lender of last resort can not be considered in a CFP. Statement IV is incorrect.

Therefore only statements I and III are correct.

An error rate of 10 basis points means the number of errors expected in a day will be 15 (recall that 100 basis points = 1%). Therefore the total number of errors expected in a year will be 15 x 250 = 3750. Choice 'a' is the correct answer.