Free PRMIA 8005 Practice Exam with Questions & Answers | Set: 9

Under the contingent claims approach, credit risk is evaluated as the value of the put on the firm's assets with a strike price equal to the face value of the debt and maturity equal to the maturity of theobligation. The Black Scholes model can then be used to value the put, and therefore an increase in volatility and the time to expiry (ie maturity) will increase the value of the debt. An increase in the risk free rate will actually reduce the value of the put, therefore statements I and III are correct and Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Loss provisioning is intended to cover expected losses. Economic capital is expected to cover unexpected losses. No capital or provisions are set aside for losses in excess of unexpected losses, which will ultimately be borne by equity.

Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

The binomial, Poisson and the negative binomial distributions can all be used to model the loss event frequency distribution. The omega distribution is not used for this purpose, therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.

Also note that the negative binomial distribution provides the best model fit because it has more parameters than the binomial or the Poisson. However, in practice the Poisson distribution is most often used due to reasons of practicality and the fact that the key model risk in such situations does not arise from the choice of an incorrect underlying distribution.

A 'hard call protection' means the bond cannot be called until a certain date, regardless of what the share price is. Therefore statement I is false. Also note that a 'soft call protection' means that a bond can be called only if the share price reaches a certain threshold.

It is advantageous for the issuer to call its convertible securities when the share price exceeds the conversion price - because these shares can instead be sold in the market at the higher share price than the lower conversion price. Statement II is true.

When the issuer's share price is very high, the convertible bond trades at a discount to the share price because it is almost certain to be called by the issuer and be redeemed at par. Therefore statement III is right. Statement IV is incorrect because convertible bonds need to pay less coupon than equivalent non-convertible bonds because of the value of the option embedded in them.

A residential mortgage carries a prepayment option for the borrower, where in the event of a decrease in interest rates they are likely to repay the mortgage and refinance at the new lower rate. If rates go up, the bank does not have a similar option. If the volatility of the underlying interest rates increases, mortgage holders are more likely to be faced with new rates that are sufficiently lower to persuade them to refinance. This reduces the ability of the bank to continue to earn the higher interest rate it was earning before.

Therefore an increase in volatility of the mortgage interest rates decreases the value of the mortgage portfolio.

The same rationale applies to callable bonds, where the borrower has the option to call the bond.